[EAS]Structural vs. Cyclical

[pjk]

Subject:   Structural vs. Cyclical

(from NewsScan Daily, 17 October 2003)

DOT-COM REFUGEES SUFFER A HARD LANDING
While many older workers caught up in the dot-com frenzy probably feel
like  they've regained some sense of normalcy now that companies are
refocusing  on bottom lines and ROI, some of the twenty-somethings who
entered the  workforce during the dot-com heyday are facing a brutal
reality: for the  first time they're encountering lower salaries, set
hours, rigid corporate  policies and a more staid pace of business.
"Some are [coping], and some  are in culture shock," says John
Challenger, CEO of outplacement firm  Challenger, Gray & Christmas.
"Some people are having a difficult time with  the process
orientation, the caution and the lack of freedom and autonomy  in more
traditional companies." However, while they may not be practicing 
their golf swing in the company cafeteria anymore, some perks have
carried  over into traditional business practice, says Challenger.
"There is more  freedom to utilize technology-telecommuting [today.]
There's more openness  about managing based on someone's output rather
than clock-punching."  Challenger notes that the best way to reward
employees is not through fancy  gifts or outlandish toys, but through
old-fashioned values like respect and  competitive pay; challenging
tasks and responsibilities; a caring and  supportive work environment;
and visionary leadership. (E-Commerce Times 16  Oct 2003)
http://www.ecommercetimes.com/perl/story/31854.html

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A recent item in The Economist
<http://www.economist.com/printedition/PrinterFriendly.cfm?Story_ID=2121991>
reports on the work of Erica Groshen and Simon Potter, two
economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, on "jobless
recoveries." They

> ... tried to measure whether job losses were due to cyclical or
> structural factors. If a job is lost because demand for the firm's
> product is temporarily low, then the job should come back as the
> economy begins to recover. But if a job is lost because a firm or
> industry is structurally in decline, then it never returns. In the
> sharp recession of the early 1980s, they found that job losses were
> split almost evenly between cyclical and structural changes. In the
> most recent slowdowns, however, most job flows were due to
> structural changes. By 1990-91 almost 60% of America's workers were
> in industries undergoing structural adjustments. By 2001 that figure
> was almost 80%. 

Their full article is at <http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci9-8/ci9-8.html>.

   --PJK

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The job market 

New ideas needed

Oct 9th 2003 | WASHINGTON, DC